U.S. Inflation and Sales in Spotlight as Fed Pivot Bets Evolve

The Week Ahead: Week of July 14, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
A packed week of macroeconomic releases will put the U.S. inflation trajectory and consumer health under intense scrutiny. On Tuesday, June CPI and Core CPI are due, and while the prior readings showed mild price growth of just 0.1% month-on-month, market participants remain alert for signs of sticky services inflation. Wednesday brings U.S. PPI and U.K. CPI — both crucial for gauging the timing and scope of monetary easing in their respective economies. U.S. retail sales, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey round out the week on Thursday, offering a cross-sectional view of demand and industrial sentiment. Across the Atlantic, Eurozone inflation data is due Thursday, with the ECB closely watching for disinflation momentum after its June rate cut.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, July 15 – 05:00

China GDP (YoY) (Q2)

Previous: 5.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

China’s Q1 GDP beat expectations at 5.4%, buoyed by stronger-than-anticipated industrial production and fiscal support. As global trade headwinds persist, markets will be watching for signs of deceleration in Q2. A reading above 5% would reassure markets that Beijing’s growth targets remain intact, while a miss could weigh on commodity-linked currencies and global risk sentiment.

Tuesday, July 15 – 15:30

U.S. Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Core CPI remained muted in May at just 0.1%, reflecting easing price pressures in shelter and transportation services. Traders are on edge over whether June’s data will confirm a disinflation trend. A softer reading could cement bets on a Fed cut by September, while an upside surprise above 0.3% might delay easing expectations and lift the dollar and Treasury yields.

Tuesday, July 15 – 15:30

U.S. CPI (MoM) (Jun)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Headline CPI rose slightly last month, driven by volatile components like energy and food. If June inflation stays subdued or prints flat, it may embolden dovish expectations. However, any renewed uptick could stoke concerns that price stability remains elusive and spark hawkish repricing across interest rate markets.

Tuesday, July 15 – 15:30

U.S. CPI (YoY) (Jun)

Previous: 2.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Annual CPI has hovered close to the Fed’s 2% target, offering some relief to policymakers. Should this print surprise to the upside, it could challenge the Fed’s narrative of controlled inflation and weigh on risk assets. Conversely, a continued downward drift would increase pressure for an autumn rate cut.

Wednesday, July 16 – 09:00

UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)

Previous: 3.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

UK inflation has been on a gradual downtrend, but remains above the BoE’s 2% target. Last month’s 3.4% reading reflected persistent pressures in housing and services. Another sticky print could delay policy easing, lending short-term support to GBP. A downside surprise, however, might reinforce market pricing of a cut by November.

Wednesday, July 16 – 15:30

U.S. PPI (MoM) (Jun)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Producer prices are a key leading indicator of future consumer inflation. After a tame 0.1% increase in May, markets are bracing for another benign outcome. A negative print would bolster the disinflation case, while a pickup in PPI could complicate Fed messaging and rattle front-end Treasuries.

Thursday, July 17 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun)

Previous: 1.9% | Forecast: 2.0% | Actual: N/A

The ECB cut rates in June for the first time in years, citing clear signs of inflation convergence. May’s 1.9% reading supported this shift. If June CPI remains near target, markets will assume further gradual easing is on track. However, if inflation surprises to the upside, it could trigger a hawkish pushback and lift the euro.

Thursday, July 17 – 15:30

U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Previous: -0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Core retail sales disappointed in May, falling 0.3% and raising questions about consumer fatigue amid high borrowing costs. A rebound in June would counter recession concerns and support equities. Continued weakness, however, might deepen the soft-landing narrative and pressure yields.

Thursday, July 17 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Claims data has been drifting higher recently, hinting at cooling in the labor market. A spike above 240K could amplify dovish sentiment and strengthen odds of a policy shift. A stable or lower figure, however, may temper expectations for imminent rate cuts.

Thursday, July 17 – 15:30

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

Previous: -4.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Last month’s reading shocked markets with a steep -4.0 decline, reflecting contraction across orders and shipments. A further deterioration would confirm broad industrial malaise, while any rebound into positive territory could ease hard-landing fears.

Thursday, July 17 – 15:30

U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Previous: -0.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Headline retail sales tumbled in May, suggesting fading household demand. A second consecutive drop would reinforce concerns about consumer retrenchment, while a surprise rebound could improve confidence in economic resilience and risk assets.