Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis

20 May 2025,06:50

Daily Market Analysis

Oil edges higher as Iran nuclear talks stall

20 May 2025, 06:50

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Key Takeaways:

*Iran nuclear talks hit a roadblock – Iran rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment, reducing the likelihood of a near-term deal that would ease sanctions and boost Iranian oil exports.

*Supply concerns support prices – The stalled negotiations help keep 300,000–400,000 barrels/day of Iranian crude off the market, tightening global supply expectations.

Fundamental Analysis

Oil prices closed slightly higher on Monday, as a potential breakdown in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations fueled expectations of tighter global supply. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said talks would stall if Washington continued to insist on halting Tehran’s uranium enrichment—comments that effectively dashed hopes of a near-term deal.

Analysts noted that the absence of an agreement means sanctions on Iranian oil exports will likely remain in place, preventing an estimated 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day from re-entering the market, according to StoneX’s Alex Hodes.

However, broader gains were capped by persistent macroeconomic concerns. Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit outlook raised investor caution, while weak Chinese industrial output and retail sales data added to the bearish sentiment, underscoring demand-side fragility in the world’s top oil importer.

Technical Analysis – Crude Oil

Crude Oil, H4

Crude oil remains supported and is currently testing resistance at $62.20. Momentum indicators point to bullish continuation: MACD shows rising positive momentum, while RSI at 56 signals a modest upside bias.

A confirmed breakout above $62.20 may lead to an extension toward the next resistance at $63.90. However, failure to break higher could prompt a pullback to key support levels at $60.00 and $57.55.

Resistance levels: 62.20, 63.90
Support levels: 60.00, 57.55

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