ECB Decision and U.S. CPI Take Center Stage in Mid-September

The Week Ahead: Week of September 8, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

September’s second week is headlined by U.S. inflation and the European Central Bank’s policy meeting—two events that could shape global risk sentiment. The week starts with Japan’s Q2 GDP, where markets expect modest growth, offering clues on whether the Bank of Japan can stay patient with policy normalization.

Midweek brings U.S. producer prices, followed by Thursday’s heavy slate: the ECB rate decision alongside U.S. CPI and jobless claims. With eurozone growth sluggish, markets will focus on whether the ECB signals a firmer easing path, while U.S. CPI will test whether disinflation momentum is intact.

The week wraps up with UK GDP and German CPI, providing key signals on the resilience of Europe’s two largest economies. With global growth showing signs of strain, the data flow will be critical for gauging the balance between inflation risks and recession concerns.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, September 8 – 02:50
Japan GDP QoQ (Q2, Final)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
Japan’s economy expanded modestly in Q1, supported by consumer spending and exports, though momentum remains fragile amid weak yen effects and slowing global trade. A stronger reading could ease recession fears and support the yen, while a downside surprise would reinforce expectations that the BoJ will keep policy ultra-accommodative.

Wednesday, September 10 – 15:30
US PPI MoM (Aug)
Previous: 0.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Producer prices accelerated sharply in July, raising concerns about upstream inflationary pressures. August’s reading will be assessed for whether cost pressures are feeding into consumer inflation. A high print could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, while softer data may reinforce expectations of disinflation.

Thursday, September 11 – 15:15
ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)
Previous: 2.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ECB Interest Rate (Sep)
Previous: 2.15% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged as growth stagnates and inflation drifts closer to target. Attention will be on President Lagarde’s press conference for guidance on the timing of potential cuts. A dovish tilt could pressure the euro, while a hawkish hold emphasizing inflation persistence may offer temporary support.

Thursday, September 11 – 15:30
US Core CPI MoM (Aug)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

US CPI YoY (Aug)
Previous: 2.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

US CPI MoM (Aug)
Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
U.S. inflation remains the central market driver. After mixed signals in July, August’s report will be scrutinized for evidence of easing core price pressures. A hotter-than-expected print could push back Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the dollar and yields, while softer inflation would support the case for September or October easing.

Thursday, September 11 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly jobless claims continue to offer a near real-time snapshot of labor conditions. A sustained rise would reinforce the narrative of a cooling jobs market and add weight to Fed easing bets, while stability at low levels would signal resilience, complicating the dovish outlook.

Friday, September 12 – 09:00
UK GDP MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The UK economy surprised with strong growth in June, but July data will show whether momentum is fading. A contraction would highlight fragility amid high rates and trade headwinds, while continued growth could ease recession worries and offer sterling some support.

Friday, September 12 – 09:00
German CPI MoM (Aug, Final)
Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Germany’s inflation eased to 0.1% in the prior month, reflecting softer energy costs, but services and food remain sticky. Confirmation or a revision will be key for ECB policy expectations. A softer figure would strengthen the case for cuts, while a rebound could complicate the easing outlook.