Gold Steady as Geopolitics Ease, Fed in Focus

26 June 2025, 05:47

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Key Takeaways:

*Gold range-bound as Middle East ceasefire tempers safe-haven demand

*Fed policy uncertainty and Core PCE data keep traders on edge

*Long-term support remains on U.S. fiscal risks and dollar weakness

Market Summary:

Gold prices remain confined within a tight range as investors digest mixed macro signals, with tentative Middle East de-escalation capping safe-haven flows while uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy lends underlying support. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has eased immediate geopolitical fears, reducing demand for crisis hedges. However, the lack of formal guarantees and sporadic clashes near Iran’s borders leave room for renewed volatility that could reprice risk sentiment quickly.

At the same time, the focus has shifted to Friday’s release of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index—a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Recent data showing softness in CPI, PPI, and housing have revived bets on a potential rate cut by September, with markets now pricing in roughly 64bps of easing by year-end. Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing a data-driven approach amid sticky services inflation and ongoing fiscal concerns.

While the dollar weakened modestly—lending technical support to gold—rising U.S. Treasury yields and strong equity inflows have tempered bullion’s upside momentum. Still, underlying concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, leadership transitions, and longer-term de-dollarization themes continue to position gold as a strategic hedge.

In short, gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on the interplay between geopolitical headlines and inflation data. A dovish PCE print could reignite bullish momentum, while persistent price pressures may prompt another leg lower, particularly if risk appetite remains firm.

Technical Analysis

GOLD, H4

Gold prices are consolidating just below $3,340, as the metal attempts to recover from recent downside pressure. Despite a recent bounce, gold remains capped below the $3,370 resistance zone, with the 100-SMA and 50-SMA acting as dynamic overhead barriers.

Momentum signals remain mixed. RSI has rebounded to 48, recovering from oversold territory but still below the bullish threshold, suggesting limited conviction behind the recent move. Meanwhile, MACD remains in negative territory, though histogram bars are showing signs of easing bearish momentum. The signal line flattening hints at a possible crossover in the sessions ahead.

Volume has diminished notably during the recent uptick, implying that the bounce may lack strong follow-through unless macro drivers—such as Friday’s Core PCE release—inject fresh volatility. If the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge surprises to the downside, dollar softness could help propel gold toward $3,400. However, a hawkish repricing or fading geopolitical risks may trigger another pullback toward $3,340 and $3,320. Until a clear breakout emerges, gold remains in a holding pattern—balancing between waning safe-haven flows and persistent policy uncertainty.

Resistance levels: 3370.00, 3392.00
Support levels: 3320.00, 3300.00