Wall Street Extends Rally to Fresh Highs Amid Trade Optimism, VIX Falls to Four-Month Low

1 July 2025, 07:10

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Key Takeaways:

*The S&P 500 hit another record high, driven by optimism over resumed U.S.-Canada trade talks and easing geopolitical tensions.

*The CBOE Volatility Index dropped below 17.00, signaling improved market confidence following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

*Investors remain cautious over Trump’s proposed tax cuts, which could expand the U.S. deficit and impact long-term economic outlook.

Market Summary:

U.S. equities extended their rally in the latest session, with all major indices finishing in positive territory. The S&P 500 notched another record close, underscoring continued bullish momentum across Wall Street. Investor sentiment was buoyed by renewed optimism over trade relations after the U.S. and Canada agreed to resume negotiations.

The breakthrough came after Canada responded positively to Washington’s request to roll back certain tax measures, including the controversial digital services tax, prompting former President Donald Trump to signal willingness to restart talks. The development was welcomed by markets, further easing concerns of trade fragmentation.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely viewed as Wall Street’s fear gauge, dropped to its lowest level in four months—falling below the 17.00 mark—reflecting improved risk appetite following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Despite the upbeat tone, lingering uncertainties remain. Market participants are closely monitoring the Trump administration’s proposed “big, beautiful” tax cut bill, which has raised concerns over fiscal discipline and U.S. deficit expansion. Additionally, geopolitical tensions resurfaced after Trump threatened a fresh round of tariffs on Japan, citing resistance to U.S. agricultural exports.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell during Tuesday’s session as investors reacted to the potential trade fallout from Washington’s tariff threat. Analysts caution that risk sentiment could quickly shift, with ripple effects potentially reaching U.S. markets during the New York session.

Technical Analysis

S&P500, H4

The S&P 500 has cemented its bullish dominance, surging to a fresh all-time high of 6,215.00 as buying momentum continues to overpower any semblance of resistance. This record-breaking performance comes after the index successfully navigated a critical technical juncture – first rebounding sharply from its April lows, then consolidating in a sideways pattern that ultimately served as a springboard for this latest upward thrust. The decisive breakout from this consolidation phase signals robust underlying demand, with investors demonstrating unwavering confidence in the face of elevated valuations.

Technical indicators paint a picture of unrelenting bullish pressure. The Relative Strength Index’s push into overbought territory typically suggests excessive enthusiasm, but in strong uptrends like the current one, such readings can persist far longer than skeptics anticipate. Meanwhile, the MACD’s sustained elevation well above its signal line confirms that positive momentum continues to accelerate rather than wane. This combination of overbought RSI and strong MACD positioning has historically preceded extended rallies during previous bull markets.

As the S&P 500 continues its relentless climb, the key question shifts from whether the rally will pause to what might finally stem its advance. For now, with momentum indicators flashing strong buy signals and price action breaking through previous resistance with ease, the path of least resistance remains firmly to the upside. Only a decisive break below key support levels – perhaps the former sideways range around 6,000 – would suggest this record-setting run might be losing steam.

Resistance levels: 6310.00, 6570.00
Support levels: 6120.00, 5860.00